Well it's that time again folks. The 89th Academy Awards are upon us, and that means Mike Drinan (@mdrinan380) and I are back to give you our picks. It's an eclectic bunch of films this year, and as usual I'm scrambling to catch up and see as many as possible before the ceremony. Jimmy Kimmel is the host this year - an unusual choice I must say. Kimmel sort of conveys a dorky everyman quality not normally associated with such an extravagant ceremony. So this'll be interesting.
As with last year we'll pick the ten main categories plus an obscure tie breaker so there will be a clear winner. Drinan killed me in the predictions last year so I'm out for revenge. So let's get to it....
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester By the Sea
Moonlight
Justin: Wow, a musical, a sci-fi movie, a western crime drama, a war movie, and five other dramas. Pretty diverse buncha films up for the big award this year. I've only seen four of these so far and hope to catch at least two or three more by the 26th. I loved
Arrival, a rare sci-fi alien film that's about real ideas and the human condition moreso than it is about aliens and spaceships. It was so refreshing to see a movie about this subject matter that was understated and thoughtful. I also loved
Manchester By the Sea, a quietly tragic drama about a lonely man carrying a horrible burden from his past.
Moonlight was a deeply touching, brilliantly acted film that at times reminded me of
Boyhood and
Brokeback Mountain.
La La Land.....well, if you read our discussion
HERE, you know neither Mike nor I was particularly impressed by Hollywood's latest love letter to itself. I'll be pretty goddamn pissed if LLL wins Best Picture, quite frankly. As for the other five, I'm very much interested in
Hell or High Water,
Hacksaw Ridge,
Lion, and
Fences, and less interested in
Hidden Figures. But I'm sure I'll see all five of them at some point. But what's important here is which film I think is going to take home the gold. It's clearly between the dual Golden Globe winners,
La La Land and
Moonlight. I could see this going either way actually. On one hand,
LLL is about Hollywood, and Hollywood loves that. On the other hand,
Moonlight has "underdog Oscar winner" written all over it, plus the Academy has taken quite some flak in recent years for only seeming to honor white actors and filmmakers. So it's really a question of whether the Academy can turn off the "Hollywood is awesome" blinders for a minute and get out of its own way. I'm going to be optimistic and say yes.
Prediction: Moonlight
Mike: I've slacked this year at getting to the theater and have only seen five of the nominees. Like you, I loved
Arrival for the reasons you mentioned. Such an original idea and delivered brilliantly.
Hell or High Water I found to be very good as well and at times gave me a
No Country For Old Men type feeling...maybe it was the Texas desert, might've been Jeff Bridges. I originally thought this would be a three picture race between
La La Land,
Moonlight and
Manchester By The Sea, however
Manchester's stock fell way down in this category as soon as
LLL began garnering rave reviews. In the meantime,
Moonlight is the brilliant little engine that could and is easily my favorite of the nominees. Such a perfect film with incredible acting from the entire cast. I'm easily rooting for
Moonlight to win this, however I think it's
La La Land's.
LLL is a throwback musical that is heavily saturated with classic MGM musical material. Plus, it's about Hollywood and, as we've all learned when
Crash won Best Picture, L.A. is in love with itself. I am not as optimistic as Justin, but I do hope he wins this category.
Prediction: La La Land
Best Director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester By the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Justin: Well they've taken the most diverse cross-section of Best Pic nominees and included their directors in this category. Denis Villeneuve lent a quiet, meditative feel to
Arrival and I was so impressed with his work here I'm excited to see his previous (and upcoming) films. Mel Gibson's inclusion here is pretty staggering considering his fall from grace a few years back. But I'm glad to see that he's put all that behind him and returned to making quality films; say what you will about him personally but I've always considered him a very gifted actor and director. Chazelle really should've won this award two years ago for
Whiplash, but he's got a very real chance to make up for it here. Lonergan's gift for pacing and emotional weight made
Manchester By the Sea a deeply compelling human drama. Barry Jenkins (like Chazelle) has only directed two feature films and has displayed prodigious skill in doing so. As with the Best Pic category I see this coming down to two candidates - Chazelle and Jenkins. In either case we'll be getting a first-time Best Director, so that's historic. But for me Chazelle failed to capture the magical touch he demonstrated with
Whiplash.
La La Land to me barely felt like a musical and lacked the splendor one associates with films like that. Jenkins on the other hand conveyed a very personal, intimate character arc with real visual flair. So in a perfect world Jenkins should take this. But I have a sneaking suspicion the Academy has a full-on boner for Chazelle's work, so I'm gonna pick him.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle
Mike: Denis Villeneuve is a really impressive director. I loved his drug cartel-themed
Sicario and
Prisoners with Jake Gyllenhaal. His film
Enemy also starring Jake Gyllenhaal is currently in my Amazon watchlist queue and I'm very much looking forward to watching. BUT I DIGRESS!!! His film
Arrival was another excellent film in his resume and like I said in my Best Picture summary, the delivery of how that story unfolded was brilliant and seamless. I'm also impressed with how Mel Gibson has found his way back in Hollywood's good graces following his controversial behavior. It would make for a nice redemption story if he were able to snag Mr. Oscar on this comeback trail. Kenneth Lonergan did a wonderful job with
Manchester By The Sea but you're right, this is between Chazelle and Jenkins. With
Moonlight, Barry Jenkins brought forth an exquisite story and was able to get his actors to display such humanity and emotion that it's almost uncanny. However, since he's a relative newcomer I think he also will get passed up for this award in favor of Chazelle.
Whiplash was a great movie and he did a spectacular job with it as it won him a ton of industry praise. With
La La Land being a musical, I think they will lean in his direction. Once again, I'll be rooting for Barry Jenkins since I feel he deserves it more than Chazelle.
Prediction: Damien Chazelle