It's Oscar time once again, folks! And that means that for the TENTH time(!) my colleague Mike Drinan and I will regale you with our predictions for who wins what awards!
Best Picture
The Brutalist
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
Justin: It's a solid field this year based on the seven films I've seen (you can click on my individual reviews above). I'm hoping to cram the last three nominees in over the next five days. I loved Anora, A Complete Unknown, Dune and The Substance (only the fourth horror film to garner a Best Picture nod), enjoyed Conclave, and had mixed feelings about Wicked and Emilia Pérez. For months it felt like The Brutalist was primed to take this award, but then Anora seemingly came out of nowhere and snagged the PGA award. Oddsmakers are also not sleeping on Conclave, which could pull off an upset. But I'll go with the modern-day Cinderella story to take home the gold.
Pick: Anora
Mike: I’ve only seen A Complete Unknown out of the bunch this year but I’ve wanted to see the majority of these nominees, except for Wicked. When I saw trailers for The Brutalist I was certain it was going to be the Best Picture. It just checked all the boxes for your typical Oscar winner, but then Anora kept popping up in coversations with Conclave and now it seems as if The Brutalist has fallen out of favor. Can’t sleep on Conclave though since voters love a good Catholic church drama. Like you, I’m going with Anora. There’s too much consistency in the response.
Pick: Anora
Best Director
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Justin: I've seen all of these but The Brutalist and I'd say three of them are definitely deserving. I'd swap out Jacques Audiard for Denis Villeneuve, or even throw Robert Eggers a bone for his masterful reimagining of Nosferatu. This is another award that for a while seemed assured for The Brutalist but Sean Baker's been on fire lately winning awards, so I'll go with him.
Pick: Sean Baker
Mike: Really strong category this year and it could’ve been stronger. I was surprised Robert Eggers didn’t get nominated for Nosferatu but it’s very difficult to nitpick with these nominees. I’m going with the hot hand.
Pick: Sean Baker
Best Actor
Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo - Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes - Conclave
Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
Justin: This here is a two-horse race. And oddly I've only seen two of these performances. Initially upon viewing Conclave I pegged Ralph Fiennes as a near sure thing; he's never won this award and his performance was a masterclass in restraint. But Timmy Chalamet and Adrien Brody have been snaring a ton of trophies between them and Chalamet just won the SAG award. It's a tough call between the two of them but I'll stick with Brody to become a two-timer.
Pick: Adrien Brody
Mike: I was also pretty sure this was going to be Ralph Fiennes year with his performance in Conclave. Again, the Academy loves a good church drama and he’s certainly a legend who would think would eventually nab an Oscar. Chalamet’s performance as Bob Dylan was remarkable and the work and research has certainly paid off and can be seen. Love me some Adrien Brody and this is right in the wheelhouse for Oscar viewers. Although, The Brutalist might be too much of an artsy flick that could hurt his cause, I’m sticking with him.
Pick: Adrien Brody
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo - Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison - Anora
Demi Moore - The Substance
Ferranda Torres - I'm Still Here
Justin: I've seen four of these. This one is also a race between two nominees. Mikey Madison's performance in Anora is career-defining and should cement her as a major force going forward. But in recent years Oscar hasn't been able to resist giving beloved older actors their long overdue flowers; three years ago it was Will Smith (or Slappy McSlap as he's now known), two years ago it was Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis and Brendan Fraser, last year it was Robert Downey, and I think this year it'll be Demi Moore, who gave the performance of her career in The Substance.
Pick: Demi Moore
Mike: Again, I agree. Demi’s role in The Substance is a pretty remarkable one and a role that I think made people truly appreciate her talent and skillset as an actor. It’s something that didn’t get talked about with her during her Brat Pack 80s run and her career in the 90s when she took on really challenging roles. It will be nice to see her get her due.
Pick: Demi Moore
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Justin: Only seen two of these as well, and I wouldn't be sad if either Yura Borisov or Edward Norton won. But it's gonna be Macauley's little bro. Dude's been snatching up awards like a Hungry Hungry Hippo. I still need to see A Real Pain, I hear it's delightful. Side note: Where the hell is Chris Hemsworth's nod for Furiosa?? Dude was incredible.
Pick: Kieran Culkin
Mike: Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger was really great. However, Kieran Culkin has really been a force and I love to see it. He’s always taken on roles that seem to push his comfort zone out more and more and this film was one of those roles. He handled it very well and I am very happy for his success during award season.
Pick: Kieran Culkin
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez
Justin: Wow, I've seen four of these as well. This is another race that's a mortal lock. I loved Monica Barbaro as Joan Baez, Ariana Grande stole the show as Glinda, and I barely noticed Isabella Rossellini in Conclave; she was fine but it was hardly her command performance. But that's all irrelevant anyway because Zoe Saldaña owns this sumbitch. As I said, I had mixed feelings about Emilia Pérez, but Zoe's performance was pretty great.
Pick: Zoe Saldaña
Mike: Ok, we keep agreeing here and this is the perfect category to make it interesting. I’ve loved Zoe Saldaña ever since I saw her in Antwone Fisher and I want her to win this statue, really I do. I just think an upset is due and it’s coming in the form of Isabella Rossellini for her maybe 10 minutes in Conclave. What I love about her role is that her scenes are shot from her POV and when she speaks it’s that much impactful. I’m going with the upset!!!
Pick: Isabella Rossellini
Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Justin: I think the two frontrunners here are Anora and The Substance, both bold, original takes on familiar genre tropes. Could go either way, as usually the Academy splits the Best Pic and Screenplay awards. But I'll go with Anora again.
Pick: Anora
Mike: Anora is certainly in the running for this for obvious reasons but I disagree with The Substance being a frontrunner. It’s difficult for me to see The Substance getting this kind of love despite the overall messaging of the story. Now, A Real Pain is an interesting story with great characters. I really think highly of this one for this award and I think I’m going for it.
Pick: A Real Pain
Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Justin: I've seen three of these and of the three I think I agree with the obvious pick here. Conclave is an excellent, gripping script.
Pick: Conclave
Mike: Alright fine, I’ve disagreed with you twice now and it’s clear you want me to agree with you again. But like you said, it’s pretty obvious.
Pick: Conclave
Best Cinematography
The Brutalist – Lol Crawley
Dune: Part Two – Greig Fraser
Emilia Pérez – Paul Guilhaume
Maria – Ed Lachman
Nosferatu – Jarin Blaschke
Justin: Glad to see Grieg Fraser nominated once again for his work in Dune, even gladder to see Jarin Blaschke's breathtaking work on Nosferatu recognized. But I think Lol Crawley takes this one for The Brutalist.
Pick: The Brutalist
Mike: Yeah, it’s The Brutalist for me as well. Even the trailers for the film look beautiful, and it should since the movie is about an architect.
Pick: The Brutalist
Best Original Score
The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Pérez – Clément Ducol and Camille
Wicked – John Powell and Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers
Justin: I don't have strong feelings about this one, but I am troubled that Hans Zimmer's Dune score got snubbed. I'll go with The Brutalist again.
Pick: The Brutalist
Mike: This category will probably go to The Brutalist since it seems like the go to pick. But let’s continue making things interesting.
Pick: Conclave
Tiebreaker: Best Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Justin: I dunno shit about any of this shit. But that's the point of a tiebreaker.
Pick: I'll go with Wander to Wonder
Mike: If this was best title, it would go to Yuck!
Pick: Magic Candies
That'll do it for this year's Oscar picks. Thanks for stopping by and enjoy the ceremony!
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